Sunday, November 26, 2006

Recession

Well, Retail sales seem at best poor.

http://blogs.wsj.com/holidaysales/2006/11/26/visa-sees-wekness-in-department-stores-apparel/

http://blogs.wsj.com/holidaysales/2006/11/26/discounts-could-spell-trouble/

Housing has been in the crapper for a while now. I haven't seen any evidence that business investment has done anything. And considering that last quarter GDP was probably closer to 1% than 2% (we will find out more in 3 days).

I also have a personal economic indicator that just recently flipped. It hit before in 1987,1990,2001. It isn't a real one but something that seems to happen at or near an economic peak.

I think recession is pretty much a given at this point.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Economic diary 10/09/06

Relevant Link

Given the sheer size of this update, I think it will be revised downward significantly. Assuming for a second this number is correct, I think it bodes ill for the economy going forward. Productivity and wages would have to be revised downward significantly. The economy wasn't really stronger. Economic strength is not merely equal to the number of people employed but also what those people are paid. If we were all slaves (and thus working), that does not mean the economy would be great.

A revision downward to something like ~500K mutes the impact of this number. Large adjustment, yes but it merely means the economy was on the better side of ok though productivity takes a hit.. Makes the soft landing scenario more likely though still not likely in my opinion.

I wonder if Katrina is still messing with the numbers. If it isn't that, is this a permanent change in the job market? Are these statistics accurate?

The question is... Are we flying blind?

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Thought of the day

Being lonely with somebody is far worse than being lonely by yourself.

I need to remember that.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Pretty Charts

Related to my comments about the markets making tops, here is some pretty charts to look at.

http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2006/09/case-for-double-top.html

Friday, September 15, 2006

Economic diary 9/15/06

This will be an ongoing series of posts (assuming laziness doesn't take over) that will probably be boring to most of you. I want to document my thoughts about what I am observing for future reference. It is quite easy to let thoughts that were somewhat fleeting but correct in the past to become your "opinion at the time". Consider this a way to see how correct I actually am.

Macro:

  1. Inflation- I think inflation will be contained in its growth going forward somewhat. A lot of it has already been baked in and the numbers will only slowly reflect it. I do think a lot of the inflation we have seen has been of the demand pull type. If the global economy slows, one would expect inflation to ease downward. Some are even arguing that we are in a deflation trap with easy money and all that (think Japan 1989). That may be the case though it is hard to say. I think any deflationary forces will be muted because of the long term policies I believe will be used (see more below).


  2. Commodities/Oil- the entire segment has been in a steady downdraft in recent weeks. Oil has dropped but so has everything else. The Gold bug types will say this is a signal that the market doesn't anticipate inflation (see deflation trap). The problem is that if inflation is demand pull, it isn't deflation we are seeing but a global slowdown. The current Oil futures correction has occurred simultaneously with excess supply. I have long thought that Oil was merely responding to increased demand (due to China and India joining everybody else) with some currency effects thrown in.

  3. Dollar- the dollar has basically treaded water for some time. So what gives? I think it is basically a case of least ugly. Our rates are decent so it is keeping investment flows strong.


  4. Housing- Simply put, it is going to get ugly. Though not bubble collapsing ugly.
Given all this, what happens? I think we are in a situation where we will have a recession lead by housing (who lead us out of the last one). Inflation will tame somewhat because of reduced demand. Commodities and Oil will stabilize at a lower level. But the choice The Fed has is try to reinflate by dumping even more money and killing the dollar but possibly stopping housing from going downhill too fast OR hang on and hope that deflation doesn't take hold and housing somehow just merely slumps and the economy grows fast enough to prop everything up and give things time to heal (i.e. malaise scenario).

My bet? The Fed tries to straddle the two. They will toss the dollar overboard fairly quickly and without remorse. But they dont want to try to reinflate any asset/credit bubbles - I think they are smart enough to realize they can't play the same game as in 2001. So the best case scenario is a bearable malaise - the softest of soft landings. Maybe a quarter of negative GDP but a long period of no growth. If that sounds familar, it should. It is called 2001-2003. Can we repeat that? I don't think so. What replaces the growth supplied by housing in the previous period? The consumer can not do it. Debt levels are too high for that much heavy lifting. CapEx is floated around a lot as well. It may come to pass but some recent signs are towards less business investment not more.

I think we will have a hard landing. Fed will toss the dollar in an attempt not to crash. Housing will take a 10-20% correction and stay level after (for years) that due to the Fed's action. Similarly, we won't have huge negative GDP but it will be stretched out over the course of years (i.e. instead of a yr of -4% GDP, a decade of -.2% GDP). Again, the Japan scenario looms large. The question is do we experience deflation like they did? I think no. Our debt is too high, our culture too different, banking system much more ruthless. By the numbers, it will seem better but on the personal level, it will be far worse. The Japanese system caused pain but due to its long time frame many suffered long but not so harshly. Our system is far worse. A good fraction will suffer harshly ( see Bankrupcy reform bill).

Stock Market:

The Dow is about 100 points from meeting the last top. If it fails to break through, it looks like a really clean double top. The Nasdaq is about 120 points from a top. The last top was tested several times. Definitely a harder ceiling than the Dow. The SP500 has reached the level of the last top. So what happens from here? I think we get a short term rally. The Sp500 might even break its top. I think that is mainly because the street will read the inflation and commodity numbers and think that inflation is under control, the fed won't boost rates, and we will have a soft landing. I think the first two aren't horrible reads but the last one is totally off. So the market will rally before they realize how bad things are getting and will begin a leg down. I think of the scenarios you put up (bearable malaise, malaise, reinflation of the credit bubble), only a reinflation is positive for the market at all. But the reinflation can't last forever. I just see as best case that the long overdue correction will merely be delayed. Still think there is a good chance of a 15%+ drop before the end of the year- on the low side.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

random

Was going through some archive and ran across this. I amuse myself way too much sometimes. Looks over. Hmm table has relatively few papers but a bunch of cd's. Well, that is atleast closer to happiness.

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Uncertainity

I don't know if I should be encouraged by progress and minimal sucess or disappointed that the success isnt more in line with what is "normal". Well hopefully it is exponential growth like it has been so far. I should catch up to my real age by what? 40? then.

My confidence work-wise was shaken recently. I dont know if I should move up. Choices...

And now I think I am getting a bald patch on the side of my head. Jesus. Just fall out entirely already. I hate shaving it but it is forcing me more and more to that choice. It is easy when it is the only fucking choice.

Weekend has been bad so far. Tomorrow should hopefully be better. Monday night have dinner with Pete. Been far too long. Should be fun.

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Consumer whorism

I purchased some stuff recently and I figured I share some thoughts.

I bought some new pillows. At 15 for 2, they seem to be a great buy. Real fluffy and if they have any kind of lifespan, well worth the cash.

I also bought a new stereo. It has its quirks (it seems far too easy to tip over for instance but a little weight solves that). The sound is very good though and the system can get quite loud. I am running it at level4 or 5. I think it goes up to 20. And it has the thinnest remote you ever seen.

Finally, I got a new toaster. I previously bought the same model in white for my parents. They love it and now that I have one, I do too. It toasts well and has a nice stay warm feature. The cool touch feature is handy in ways you wouldnt realize it. Are their nicer toasters? Sure but this one is cheap and works better than most that I have used.

Saturday, July 22, 2006

The conundrum of the Kantian Nihilist

The recent stupidity of Muir's comic (no I won't link you- it has to be the only web comic that is so retarded I won't read. And I read ghastly religiously for crissakes) has created a bit of a buzz. But it has me thinking about a bigger issue- that of intellectual fakery.

It is easy enough to appear as an "Expert" with a little bit of knowledge and some strong opinions. We see that all the time in media with "pundits". Get something right one time and be willing to make reckless statements (i.e. good tv)? Welcome to a career as a talkign head. Make up facts to support your position? All the better!

But real intellectualism? That is of no use in the generic sense. I don't pretend that this is in any way new. Richard Hofstadter wrote about this in 1963. But it makes one wonder about the sustainability of such an organizational structure. In a world where true knowledge is more and more valuable, there is more chaff to sift through. And increasingly, that is what we as a species spend our time doing. Why do you think things like google and wikipedia are so popular? Why do we spend so much time creating and optimizing databases? Do we hit a point where the system breaks down?

I don't know but I have a sense we will find out sooner rather than later.



I ponder, as a mere side thought, if this is in a way related to trend of the arm's length attack. By that I mean the use of other's to attack positions or people (e.g. swift boat liars for truth - though that isn't what prompted this paragraph). An attack without sullying one's hands if you will. This isn't new but it seems to be more and more prevelant. In a society where the image of one's intellect is prevalent for creditability, it presents an interesting opportunity to damage another person's creditibilty by mere allegations without the potential for blowback.

Links and such.

This will be a work in progress. Think of it as a blogroll in primative form but for sites that I think more people would benefit by reading.

Personal Blogs

Milo's blog bungojungo also see ty eats cheese.

Martin's blog Ghostlands

Financial/Economic

Big Picture

Angry Bear

Shopping Stuff

Porto Rico Coffee
See my previous reviews.

Fatwallet forums This is a great to find deals and reviews on things to buy.

Amazon Refund tracker

Package Mapper - appears dead.

Sports

Hardball Times

Comic

BoxJam

Monday, June 19, 2006

Coffee Review- Cafe Blend from Porto Rico Importers

The company: Porto Rico Importers based in NYC. Been in business a long time. Offer wide variety of beans cheaply. Also sells a wide selection of tea. Has weekly specials on coffee. Has internet, phone, and fax ordering options. Not a huge operation with an amazon type polish to it. Internet ordering is basically a secured email, not a cart system. Ordering was easy enough, no acknowledgement. Email sent back with final order total within 36 hours.

The coffee: Beans are dark in color and have a good sheen to them. Almost as dark as a French roast. Strong Aroma, balanced flavor. Not as strong as French Mocha but Stronger than Peter's Blend. Definitely would order again.

Price of coffee: They have weekly specials. Cafe Blend runs $3.99/pound on sale. Regular price varies but is often 5.99/lb.

Shipping: $7.28 to ship 3 pounds. $7.58 to ship 5 pounds. Uses UPS ground. Took 5 Business days - ordered during their Spring sale and they warn that it can take up to 2 weeks.

Packaging: Shipped in a box with biodegradable packing peanuts (no chemical fumes which is a plus). Bagged in plastic lined paper bags- not vacuum packed.

See previous review of Peter's Blend here.

See previous review of Northeast Blend here.

See previous review of Columbian Supremo here.

See previous review of French Mocha here.

Coffee Review- French (Roast) Mocha from Porto Rico Importers

The company: Porto Rico Importers based in NYC. Been in business a long time. Offer wide variety of beans cheaply. Also sells a wide selection of tea. Has weekly specials on coffee. Has internet, phone, and fax ordering options. Not a huge operation with an amazon type polish to it. Internet ordering is basically a secured email, not a cart system. Ordering was easy enough, no acknowledgement. Email sent back with final order total within 36 hours.

The coffee: Traditional French roast. Not much else to say. Beans are very oily and have a nice sheen to them. Dark color but not as dark as some french roasts which can look like coal at times. Strong Aroma. Nice strong balanced brew. Would definitely order again.

Price of coffee: They have weekly specials. French Mocha runs $3.99/pound on sale. Regular price varies but is often 5.99/lb.

Shipping: $7.28 to ship 3 pounds. $7.58 to ship 5 pounds. Uses UPS ground. Took 5 Business days - ordered during their Spring sale and they warn that it can take up to 2 weeks.

Packaging: Shipped in a box with biodegradable packing peanuts (no chemical fumes which is a plus). Bagged in plastic lined paper bags- not vacuum packed.

See previous review of Peter's Blend here.

See previous review of Northeast Blend here.

See previous review of Columbian Supremo here.

Monday, June 05, 2006

What am I, a clown?

Apparently, I am here to amuse you. Or entertain you in some way.

Being an engineer, I have a love for numbers. So when I started this blog over a year ago, I signed up for a hit counter. I didn't think anybody would ever read it. I mean I am just a random person. But surprisingly, random people will read what other random people have to say. It is an interesting thing.

So what does that have to do with anything? Well my hit counter recently went through the roof. (The stats are publicly available if you want to see. Just click on the little icon and it should lead you to the page.) Anyway, one or several people have been spending a lot of time reading my entire blog. And supposedly, the hits are local (the tracker isn't 100% accurate). I will admit to being curious (I mean really who wouldn't?) but no I don't want to know who you are. I just wanted to say welcome and I'm glad you are entertained enough to read that many pages (and really that is what caused me to write this post. 87 pages? just wow.). So, I hope you continue to read, laugh, cry, get pissed, mock me behind my back, whatever. I just hope your aren't bored.

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Yeah I know why you are really here


More pictures here.

Coffee Review- Colombian Supremo from Porto Rico Importers

The company: Porto Rico Importers based in NYC. Been in business a long time. Offer wide variety of beans cheaply. Also sells a wide selection of tea. Has weekly specials on coffee. Has internet, phone, and fax ordering options. Not a huge operation with an amazon type polish to it. Internet ordering is basically a secured email, not a cart system. Ordering was easy enough, no acknowledgement. Email sent back with final order total within 36 hours.

The coffee: Beans have a strong fragrance to them. They have a matte caramel colored finish to them. Caramel notes in the taste as well. Not a blend. Reminds me of Peter's Blend which isn't a surprise since Peter's Blend is a third Columbian Supremo. Lacks some of the structure of Peter's blend. Smooth, seems a little more acidity than Peter's Blend but by no means acidic.
I would order this blend again.

Price of coffee: They have weekly specials. Columbian Supremo runs $3.99/pound on sale. Regular price varies but is often 5.99/lb.

Shipping: $7.28 to ship 3 pounds. $7.58 to ship 5 pounds. Uses UPS ground. Took 5 Business days - ordered during their Spring sale and they warn that it can take up to 2 weeks.

Packaging: Shipped in a box with biodegradable packing peanuts (no chemical fumes which is a plus). Bagged in plastic lined paper bags- not vacuum packed.

See previous review of Peter's Blend here.

See previous review of Northeast Blend here.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Never mix Alkali Metals and Water. I'm not sure about Alkali metals and dildos though...

This is fucking cool.

Anybody for some Francium?

--------------------------------------------------

This is great, too.- Potentially NSFW. Language and gratuitous images of dildos (nonsexual).

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Life is strange

Tomorrow is going to suck majorily. It is weird. When I talked to my mom, yesterday, we had a fight like usual. It really is getting to the point where I can't talk to her for more than 20 minutes before we butt heads. There is just no making her happy. I told my sister as much.

Yet, with all the crap lately, tomorrow is going to be beyond stressful. I keep telling myself it will be for the better and she will be happier. Hopefully, it will go smoothly tomorrow. Hopefully, she will get better quickly. Hopefully, hopefully, hopefully... at least one thing in my life has to go well.

I hope.

Coffee Review- Northeast Blend from Porto Rico Importers

The company: Porto Rico Importers based in NYC. Been in business a long time. Offer wide variety of beans cheaply. Also sells a wide selection of tea. Has weekly specials on coffee. Has internet, phone, and fax ordering options. Not a huge operation with an amazon type polish to it. Internet ordering is basically a secured email, not a cart system. Ordering was easy enough, no acknowledgement. Email sent back with final order total within 36 hours.

The coffee: Beans are obviously fresh and had a nice fragrance to them. They were not oily but not quite bone dry as can be expected for the roast, which is fairly light. Obviously a blend as there were different shades of beans. Northeast Blend is fairly mild, more along the lines of the typical decent breakfast blend. Smooth, Low acid. Straight forward with a slight fragrance. Goes well Black with a small amount of sugar though I suspect it probably would go better with some milk or a flavoring. It would make a decent base coffee for some syrup. I might order this blend again if it is on sale. Definitely prefer Peter's Blend. Note: the brew time with this blend is key. Cutting it short produces nothing more than colored water. A 4-5 minutes (french press) brew time produces a nice drinkable product.

Price of coffee: They have weekly specials. Northeast blend runs $3.99/pound on sale. Regular price varies but is often 5.99/lb.

Shipping: Charges their cost, $7.56 to ship 5 pounds (compared to $7.28 to ship 3 pounds previously). Uses UPS ground. Took 3 Business days.

Packaging: Shipped in a box with biodegradable packing peanuts (no chemical fumes which is a plus). Bagged in plastic lined paper bags- not vacuum packed.

See previous review of Peter's Blend here.

I should have known better

It blew up. Why the fuck did I expect different? I dont know...

Sunday, April 23, 2006

Thoughts

So far 30 is different... and I really don't know why. Maybe it is the whole being comfortable in your own skin cliche. I have nothing else to explain it. Life is basically the same but I'm different. I care less about making sure I do the right thing and worry more about what will... make me happy (?) . It isn't that quite.

I think I just learned to relax about things more. I'm old now. My life is what it is. I'm not going to be some super duper athlete or Multiple PhD. I have my set ways and I'm not apologetic about it.

I always been afraid to mention anything to people about potentials. This time hasn't been markedly different. I still shy away from it somewhat. But it is what it is, so I don't avoid it totally. It is very weird to have something develop in a normal way. All my relationships (if you can call them that) have been fucked up in some way. This is the first time I have had a normal meeting and had a woman want to see me again. I still have no clue why she does but she does. I am trying to just enjoy it for what it is even though it isn't much to speak of yet. I am hoping for a couple months of something. It doesn't have to be much. What little I have so far is precious to me. Even just potential is nice. I know it will all come crashing down but I am just trying to enjoy it for now. Hopefully, it is long enough to hit some nice restaurants I cant do alone. Tomorrow should be fun.

And then some things never change. Thursday is going to be rough. I so hope it is the right thing and it will make things better. I can't think how they can be worse... It is enough to make me pray. Sigh, this is what it is like to be an adult.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

New Things

Yay! New cell came today. Need to get use to it now.

The new sneakers are damn comfortable. I only wish they didnt take so long to get here.

I tried something new at lunch today: Tom Kha Kai, Thai chicken coconut soup. It was interesting. Had some heat and some tang. Not for the weak. Chicken broth it was definitely not. If you don't like coconut milk, avoid like the plague.

Monday, April 03, 2006

The shoe drops

Remember this? Or This? Well Pete dropped the news today. He asked her and she said yes. I am real happy for him. She is a great girl. He deserves her.

From a personal perspective, it is depressing though. He is younger than me. He puts zero effort into dating (multiple yrs without a date) and she drops into his lap. I have tried various things over the years and I have what? negative, nevermind zero, to show for it?

I almost canceled Sunday. I mean what is the point? I won't though. It is pointless but it is something to do, even if it is a one time thing. I need more stuff to do. It keeps me going.

Sunday, April 02, 2006

Disturbance in the Force

Wow. Ok this is really weird. Things aren't suppose to go smoothly. But they are. Next Sunday is the big test apparently. Now is not the time to worry about things.

I got some good/bad news on Saturday. My sister asked me to be the Godfather. Yay! But it means I have to register at the local Church and start attending regularly. Crap. I am expecting a baby this week and if I don't get it, I am going to start complaining.

New Cell should be here Tuesday. New sneakers should be here tomorrow (finally!!).

All this stuff lately makes me feel very adult. Though not old. Strange. I hope it keeps up.

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Good Day

Today was a good day (I guess is, not quite over yet). Absolutely beautiful weather (70s, breezy). Car inspection went without a hitch. I decided to take the entire day off. Needed the break really after this long biweek, too. Well, I was home so I decided to actually cook. I used that leftover eggplant with spaghetti for lunch. Came out good again. I think that is now an official "how to use frozen fried eggplant" recipe. For dinner, I contemplated making the curry but I should get some bamboo shoots for that. So I decided to try something with that kilebasa in the freezer. Some corn, some carrots, some string beans... viola. I added some cheese to the final product for a little bit extra.


The second can of corn may have been a bit too much. Have plenty of leftovers now too (probably two more meals worth).

Still need to decide on a cell phone but at least I know what I am going to do.

I also decided to be a tad more assertive. What I have been doing so far seems to be working, much to my surprise. I figured what the hell. It is playing with house money for me. (now that I mentioned the situation publicly it will probably blow in my face. oh well).

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Coffee Review- Peter's Blend from Porto Rico Importers

The company: Porto Rico Importers based in NYC. Been in business a long time. Offer wide variety of beans cheaply. Also sells a wide selection of tea. Has weekly specials on coffee. Has internet, phone, and fax ordering options. Not a huge operation with an amazon type polish to it. Internet ordering is basically a secured email, not a cart system. Ordering was easy enough, no acknowledgement. Email sent back with final order total within 36 hours.

The coffee: Beans are obviously fresh and had a strong fragrance to them. They were slightly oily as well, especially so for a non-french roast. Obviously a blend as there were different shades of beans. Peter's Blend is fairly similar to breakfast blends but with a bit more heft(I find breakfast blends to be light or weak in general). Smooth, Low acid. Fairly straight forward with some decent accent notes. Goes well Black with a small amount of sugar. I would order this blend again.

Price of coffee: They have weekly specials. Peter's blend runs $3.99/pound on sale. Regular price varies but is often 5.99/lb.

Shipping: $7.28 to ship 3 pounds. Uses UPS ground. Took 3 Business days.

Packaging: Shipped in a box with biodegrabale packing peanuts (no chemical fumes which is a plus). Bagged in plastic lined paper bags- not vacuum packed.

Sunday, March 05, 2006

Hit Pause

I need to get away from this online thing.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Patterns and weirdness

The human brain loves to make patterns and associates that don't exist. Trying to make order out of chaos and all that. So it isn't unusual to start seeing fpf things in real life to some degree.

But Jesus, that girl looks a lot like Rufie.

Monday, February 27, 2006

Semicolon

Ok so I decide to write a note to this woman on match. I type it up and reread it to check for typos and such. I realize that I used a semicolon in the second line of the email.

A semicolon.

What the fuck am I thinking? Am I trying not to have her read past the second line?

Saturday, February 11, 2006

Comfortable cocoon

I been what can be described as a rut for quite a few years now. My life is not much different at 30 than it was 24 (I am even back to buying CDs!). That is sad in a way. I been trying to force change recently. We will see how it goes.

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Worst Mindset ever

Milestone birthdays have a habit of causing reflection on one's life. It also causes one to remember the past. I ran across some old emails with a friend named John who I long have lost touch with. I recognized me yet not me. And there was my friend, patient and understanding with my ranting. Truth in my madness? There were facts but nothing representing what can be considered truth.

I come to the conclusion that I am the
> personification of the
> fact that there is NOT someone for anyone. I am
> gonna be 25 in less than a
> month and I have realized that not one girl has ever
> though enough of me to
> withstand a hour of my company for a free meal. So
> as you can see, I am
> feeling just great about myself.


I need to email John...

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Hopes for the New Year

I hope:

  • Josh finds a way.
  • Noel manages to get her stuff together.
  • Martin finds a nice French Canadian Nympho.
  • Brad stays off the lung candy.
  • Elena doesn't break Vince.
  • My niece is happy and healthy.
  • My mom gets better.
  • My dad gets a break.

And me? I don't know. I want a resolution (an end if you will).