Recession

Well, Retail sales seem at best poor.

http://blogs.wsj.com/holidaysales/2006/11/26/visa-sees-wekness-in-department-stores-apparel/

http://blogs.wsj.com/holidaysales/2006/11/26/discounts-could-spell-trouble/

Housing has been in the crapper for a while now. I haven't seen any evidence that business investment has done anything. And considering that last quarter GDP was probably closer to 1% than 2% (we will find out more in 3 days).

I also have a personal economic indicator that just recently flipped. It hit before in 1987,1990,2001. It isn't a real one but something that seems to happen at or near an economic peak.

I think recession is pretty much a given at this point.