Sounds like we are all agreed then

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: "Those who analyzed or forecast the U.S. domestic macroeconomy agreed that a steep decline in the value of the dollar sometime in the next five years was overwhelmingly likely... those who analyzed or forecast the international economy as a whole were typically terrified by the prospect of a steep (30% or more, perhaps much more) decline in the value of the dollar:"

And that is why I have much of my assets in foreign denominated securities. 30-40% change in the value of the dollar is too big a change not to take advantage of. If you like economics, read his whole post. It is quite good.

I think, personally, we will be somewhere in between the two extremes (how noncommittal of me). It seems certain the dollar will decline. I think it will be somewhat orderly but there will definitely be some dislocations. The domestic economists are counting too much on the Fed and perfect reactions. The international economists I don't have much of an issue with except the worst case rarely happens. There will be adjustment. It might be painful but total economic stagnation would require no adjustment.